€500,000 Help to Buy Ceiling Locks First-Time Buyers Out of Family Homes in Commuter Counties
SCSI report shows price growth is outpacing earnings as affordability gap widens for first-time buyers seeking three-bed semi-detached homes
28 July 2026 | 📧 editor@ipropertyradio.com
First-time buyers earning well above the national average are increasingly being priced out of the family homes they want, with the €500,000 Help to Buy (HTB) price ceiling now excluding many new homes in Ireland’s key commuter counties.
The latest Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) Residential Property Mid-Year Market Monitor 2026shows that estate agents expect national residential property prices to increase by a further 5% over the next 12 months. At the same time, 92% of agents now describe current house prices as expensive or very expensive, up from 84% just six months ago, while only 6% believe property currently represents fair value.
However, the report’s affordability modelling highlights what may be the most significant issue facing aspiring homeowners: Government support schemes are no longer keeping pace with new home prices in many of Ireland’s fastest-growing housing markets.
The median price of a new three-bedroom semi-detached home now stands at €515,000 in Meath, €525,000 in Wicklow and €530,000 in Kildare, placing all three counties above the €500,000 maximum purchase price eligible for the Help to Buy scheme.
For many first-time buyers, this creates a sharp financial cliff edge.
Using the report’s Wicklow affordability scenario, a first-time buyer couple earning a combined €113,000 must fund the full 10% deposit of €52,500 themselves because the property exceeds the Help to Buy threshold. They must also bridge a further €20,500 gap between their estimated borrowing capacity of €452,000 and the purchase price.
In practical terms, this means needing approximately €73,000 in cash before purchasing a home.
That compares with around €15,000 to €20,000 typically required where Help to Buy remains available.
Applying the report’s affordability methodology to the other commuter counties suggests buyers would require approximately €63,000 in Meath and almost €78,000 in Kildare to complete the purchase of a median-priced new three-bedroom semi-detached home.
The findings suggest that the very type of home many growing families aspire to purchase has effectively moved beyond the reach of the scheme specifically designed to assist first-time buyers.
House prices pulling away from earnings
The report also illustrates how rapidly house prices are now overtaking income growth.
Between the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, the modelled household income increased from €112,000 to €113,000, increasing estimated mortgage borrowing capacity by approximately €4,000.
Over the same six-month period, however, the median price of a three-bedroom semi-detached home in Kildare increased by €30,000, representing 6% growth.
As a result, what had been a modest affordability surplus of around €2,000 became a shortfall of almost €25,000 within six months.
A similar trend emerged in Meath, where a 3% increase in median prices turned a small affordability surplus into an €11,500 funding gap.
The analysis demonstrates that house price inflation is currently outpacing increases in purchasing power by a significant margin, despite continued wage growth and stable mortgage lending conditions.
Support schemes missing the target
The SCSI analysis also highlights limitations within another Government affordability measure, the First Home Scheme.
According to the report, the scheme did not apply in any of the affordability scenarios examined.
In lower-priced counties, purchasers already had sufficient borrowing capacity, meaning no shared-equity support was required.
In higher-priced commuter counties, however, the homes exceeded the regional First Home Scheme price limits, making buyers automatically ineligible.
For example, the regional caps stand at €475,000 in both Meath and Kildare and €500,000 in Wicklow, below the median prices for new three-bedroom semi-detached homes in each county.
The result is that a typical professional couple, represented in the report by a garda and a nurse each with ten years’ service and earning a combined €113,000, falls outside the eligibility criteria in both directions.
Family homes becoming the affordability dividing line
The report suggests affordability is increasingly determined by housing type rather than simply location.
While new two-bedroom and three-bedroom terraced houses remain affordable across Cork, Meath, Wicklow and Kildare under the modelled scenarios, affordability breaks down when buyers move to a three-bedroom semi-detached home.
This indicates that many first-time buyers are not necessarily being excluded from home ownership altogether but are instead being forced to compromise on the size and type of home they purchase.
For growing families intending to remain in their first home for longer, that distinction could become increasingly important.
Market expected to remain expensive
Despite widespread affordability concerns, estate agents continue to expect further price growth over the coming year.
The survey found that 64% believe prices are still increasing but will level off soon, while a further 18% believe the market has reached its peak and may begin to soften.
Most respondents also reported that mortgage lending conditions have either remained stable or improved slightly during the first half of 2026, supporting continued buyer demand.
SCSI Vice President Emer Byrne said the residential market continues to be characterised by an imbalance between supply and demand, with affordability remaining one of the defining challenges for first-time buyers, particularly those seeking family-sized homes in commuter counties.
She said the survey findings demonstrate that while Government support schemes continue to assist some purchasers, rising house prices have outpaced improvements in purchasing power across several key locations.
Beyond home ownership, the report also highlights continuing structural changes in the rental sector. Estate agents report ongoing sales by smaller landlords, with ownership of rental housing becoming increasingly concentrated among larger institutional providers as individual landlords continue to leave the market due to regulatory complexity, lower returns and improved exit opportunities created by rising property values.
One point within the report may warrant clarification. The affordability scenarios state they focus on three-bedroom terraced homes, while the Wicklow example uses a €525,000 purchase price that corresponds with the report’s median price for a three-bedroom semi-detached home. The affordability calculations themselves remain internally consistent, but the housing typology referenced in the scenarios appears inconsistent with the accompanying data tables.
